India’s stock market is projected to surpass a valuation of $10 trillion by 2030, reflecting a significant growth from its current $4.5 trillion, making it the fifth-largest in the world. This optimistic forecast by Jefferies Financial Group Inc. is based on the historical performance of India’s market, which has consistently delivered double-digit returns, and the anticipation of ongoing economic reforms. Despite briefly eclipsing Hong Kong last month to climb the global ranks,
India’s representation in global stock indexes remains under 2%, indicating substantial room for increased foreign investment. Jefferies analysts, including Mahesh Nandurkar and Chris Wood, suggest that adjustments in market free-float and the resolution of weight anomalies could enhance India’s attractiveness to large global investors. The country’s remarkable economic growth rate, one of the fastest globally, has already positioned India as a compelling market for investors, especially those diversifying away from China.
With a 7% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in gross domestic product (GDP) over the last decade, elevating its economy to $3.6 trillion, India has ascended from the world’s eighth to the fifth-largest economy. Jefferies anticipates India’s GDP will reach $5 trillion by 2027, potentially surpassing Japan and Germany, driven by demographic advantages, institutional robustness, and governance improvements.
